Heathbar's Crunch » Historical

Possible, Plausible, Probable, Proven

Chris Heath — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 15:26:52 +0000

I surfed across this post on Rober Philen’s Blog, ‘Anthropology, Culture Theory, and Cultural and Political Commentary’ this morning titled: Possible, Plausible, Probable, Proven.

Pretty interesting, if I don’t say so myself.

The terms do reflect an ascending order of probability (and a nested one – anything that is plausible is also possible; anything proven is also probable, plausible, and possible), though not in a numerically precise way. They represent a sort of qualitative statistics. When we can realistically indicate precise probabilities, that is obviously a useful thing, but even a rough sense of degree of probability is far more useful than no such sense at all.

Errors in thinking arise whenever we jump up this ascending ladder of probability without evidence, or without sufficient evidence (though admittedly, knowing what counts as sufficient evidence is always tricky business). Just because it’s possible that Bigfoot could be running around the Pacific Northwest or elsewhere doesn’t make it plausible, much less probable or proven.

Happy Independence Day

Chris Heath — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 01:22:29 +0000

Took some pictures of the Battleship USS NC fireworks ;-P

See and download the full gallery on posterous

Posted via email from heathbar’s posterous

Where Are They Now? 25 Computer Products That Refuse to Die

Chris Heath — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 16:41:57 +0000

These tech products and services may be forgotten, but they’re far from gone. How have these geezers managed to hang on for so long?

read more | digg story

8 Years Of Bush in 8 Minutes!

Chris Heath — Sun, 18 Jan 2009 18:49:02 +0000

Keith Olbermann takes us on a whirlwind tour of the last 8 years under George W. Bush that has left so much demolished.

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Exclusive: Cheney’s admissions to the CIA leak FBI

Chris Heath — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 04:24:22 +0000

We all know that Cheney was a part of the Plame CIA leak. How do we know for sure? He admitted it.

Cheney conceded during his interview with federal investigators that in drawing attention to Plame’s role in arranging her husband’s Africa trip reporters might also unmask her role as CIA officer.

Cheney denied to the investigators, however, that he had done anything on purpose that would lead to the outing of Plame as a covert CIA operative. But the investigators came away from their interview with Cheney believing that he had not given them a plausible explanation as to how he could focus attention on Plame’s role in arranging her husband’s trip without her CIA status also possibly publicly exposed.

Libby was convicted on March 6, 2007 of four felony counts of lying to federal investigators, perjury, and obstruction of justice, in attempting to conceal from authorities his own role, and that of other Bush administration officials, in leaking information to the media about Plame.

On July 2, 2007, President Bush commuted Libby’s thirty month prison sentence, saying he was doing so out of compassion for Libby’s family and because he believed that he believed that the sentence was excessive. The White House declined to say whether Bush might consider a full pardon for Libby.

In the next few days, it will become known whether Libby will in fact be pardoned by President Bush in his final days in office.

In the meantime, what the Vice President and the President told the FBI during their own FBI interviews during the Plame investigation will not be officially disclosed by the White House. Despite the fact that prosecutor Fitzgerald has said told Congress that he has no objections to the provision of the reports to Congress, the Bush administration has refused to follow through.

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PAY ATTENTION!

Chris Heath — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 22:47:47 +0000

Ron Paul’s speech on the floor of the House on the auto industry bailout. It’s been a distraction from what has really been happening this year.

watch video | digg story

The Shifts In The Map – NYTimes

Chris Heath — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:09:08 +0000

This flash animation starts with a map of the US showing blue and red shades for the counties that voted more D or more R than in 2004. Not much red on that map. It then goes on to break down some stats for states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. Very interesting, IMHO.

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Obama Explains His Tax Cut Plans To Joe the Plumber

Chris Heath — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 01:45:57 +0000

This is the video of Joe “the Plumber” Wurzelbacher asking Obama about taxes that McCain brought up in the final debate Tuesday. There was extensive coverage of it in the news yesterday and today. I found this video to be very informative.

YouTube | Digg

Impeachement Hearing Vincent Bugliosi Hammers Bush

Chris Heath — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 16:37:44 +0000

Vincent Bugliosi’s opening statements during the House Judiciary Committee hearing on the constitutional limits of executive power. (full video c-span links in the digg comments)

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The Big Story You May Have Missed During the Obama v Clinton

Chris Heath — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:33:44 +0000

I’d like to call your attention to a major story you may have missed: the Senate Intelligence Committee’s 200-page “Phase II” report on how the Bush administration used — and abused — pre-war intelligence in the run-up to the war in Iraq.

Duh, but it’s nice to see that the committee had voted 10-5 to pass the report.

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