Heathbar's Crunch » Personal

Possible, Plausible, Probable, Proven

Chris Heath — Sat, 14 Jan 2012 15:26:52 +0000

I surfed across this post on Rober Philen’s Blog, ‘Anthropology, Culture Theory, and Cultural and Political Commentary’ this morning titled: Possible, Plausible, Probable, Proven.

Pretty interesting, if I don’t say so myself.

The terms do reflect an ascending order of probability (and a nested one – anything that is plausible is also possible; anything proven is also probable, plausible, and possible), though not in a numerically precise way. They represent a sort of qualitative statistics. When we can realistically indicate precise probabilities, that is obviously a useful thing, but even a rough sense of degree of probability is far more useful than no such sense at all.

Errors in thinking arise whenever we jump up this ascending ladder of probability without evidence, or without sufficient evidence (though admittedly, knowing what counts as sufficient evidence is always tricky business). Just because it’s possible that Bigfoot could be running around the Pacific Northwest or elsewhere doesn’t make it plausible, much less probable or proven.

Ever seen ZoSo the Led Zeppelin cover band?

Chris Heath — Sat, 02 Jul 2011 15:44:33 +0000

So the Downtown Wilmington Inc (a public/private organization) puts on free shows every Friday during the summer.
A portable stage is set up on the riverfront in front of the federal courthouse. The USS North Carolina is moored a block or two up river on the other side creating a great backdrop for the concert as the sun is setting. Water Street gets shut down and is transformed into a general admission concert venue for 2-3 hours.

Here’s the ‘poster’ for this year’s line-up of bands.

It’s a lot of cover and tribute bands, but the quality/caliber is top notch.

Appetite for Destruction is the closest thing to a GnR show you can get right now, and these guys (ZoSO) are another one of these top tier cover bands that makes you forget their a cover band.

That good.

So I took some pictures with my iPhone 3GS using the 360 Panorama app and touched them up with the effects in Camera+ (which I posted about recently after taking some pics of my fresh detail on the Cadillac.)

So my friend and I showed up a little late and we arrived to the sound of Good Times, Bad Times. I can remember they also played were Babe I’m Gonna Leave You, Hey Lady, and an awesome version of the Moby Dick drum solo – complete with a section played with his hands even giving the gong a backhanded smack!

When they began into the unmistakeable beginning of Stairway To Heaven I got the feeling that it might be their finale, but they played Kashmir next as the ‘finale’ but came back on stage for an encore (as is customary these days) and sent us home to a really good version of Whole Lotta Love.

I had a blast, and I’m looking forward to the Grateful Dead cover band Cosmic Charlie that’s going to play at the end of the month as well as some of the other bands coming up in August: Dave Matthews Tribute Band, Satisfaction (the Rolling Stones cover band), and Tuesday’s Gone (Lynyrd Skynyrd cover band).

The weather is here, wish you were beautiful.
Enjoy the pics! (click the thumbnails to go to the full resolution versions)

Notice the USS North Carolina in the background?

Originally posted at Cadillac Owners Forum